Wednesday, September 16, 2009

This is what a crisis looks like

From the Daily Mail (I know, I know), the reality of crisis:Martin Stopford, managing director of Clarksons, London's biggest ship broker, says container shipping has been hit particularly hard: 'In 2006 and 2007 trade was growing at 11 per cent. In 2008 it slowed down by 4.7 per cent. This year we think it might go down by as much as eight per cent. If it costs £7,000 a day to put the ship to sea and if you only get £6,000 a day, than you have got a decision to make.

'Yet at the same time, the supply of container ships is growing. This year, supply could be up by around 12 per cent and demand is down by eight per cent. Twenty per cent spare is a lot of spare of anything - and it's come out of nowhere.'
That is, a vast fleet of unused ships are moored off Singapore, hundreds and hundreds of empty crewless tankers.

Whats more, the ship yards are running out of orders, and will be at a standstill by 2011 - the long tail of the recession shows itself here, recovery will only soak up the available stocks, there will be a lag before new capacity is needed.


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