Irish by-elections

Small flaw in Irish constitution discovered, there is no timetable in law for calling a by-election meaning the Cowen government, the majority of which (with Greens and ragtag independents) is less than the number of current vacancies, is living on borrowed time. It seems it plans to live on long enough to pass another (yes, another) austerity budget. If you thought Ireland had got really austere before, it's going to be more so soon.

So, a General election in Ireland after Christmas, followed by a Green wipeout and a stumble for Fianna Fail?

Vote early

Well, this morning I voted. I voted in the Kentish Town "Arizona by-election" - caused by the Lib-Dem councillor who thought he could represent an inner London ward from Arizona (he went there to get a Phd.).

Given the unrelenting lies of the Lib-Dems - including the dodgiest of bar charts (not to scale, using the last election but one, putting a text box over the bars to disguise where the zero line was, etc. - all to try and make their real challengers in the ward, the Greens, seem less of a threat) - I was sorely tempted to vote to try and get them out.

In the end, though, Party discipline prevailed, and I spoilt my ballot by writing "World Socialism: SPGB" across my ballot paper.

My way of explaining this strategy, this days, is by likening it to strike action. By consciously applying a political picket line, which says: "We are not going to express priorities and preferences, unless and until this great issue of class is sorted out." They need our votes, our input.

Sometimes it might hurts us a little, as all strike action does, but the final goal is clear.

The Shettlestonians...

Labour stuffed in Glasgow. Are we facing a Canada 1993 with Labour facing utter wipeout? Will that finally lead to the realignment Blair wanted (after all, the liberals would fill the gap, and a good chunk of Labour would desert the old union based organisation).

The big question is, Gordon Brown, what will he do, go, and go now, or cling on - perhaps pursuing a scorched Earth policy? A series of give away budgets?

Stay tuned, to this bat channel!

The rout?

Now, this time last year, I was toying with placing a bet on the next election. My bet was - Tories as biggest party in a hung parliament.

I'm begining to be glad I didn't squander the £50, now.

My reasoning was, although the Tories were climbing in the polls, they needed a disproportionately large swing even to be the largest party, about 8% - their vote is very clumpy, and in their south eastern heartlands, they need about 20,000 per seat to get elected, whereas Labour takes northern seats with about 10,000 votes (some less, terrible turnouts up there).

We are heading for Tory government now, cheifly, the thing I've noticed over the last few ballots, is the Fib-Dems are starting to spiral down again, Yellow Tories are now voting Blue Tory because of Cameron's "progressive coalition" - played for and got,he's pulled some Fib-Dem voters to him.

What can Labour do? Their gradual slide down in the polls has become a rout: a give away budget hasn't stemmed the tide; Brown lacks charm, charisma or the famous vision he promised us - just more and more dull technocratic nonsense that's been blown away with the loss of his competence talisman. A lurch to the left seems unlikely. All they have left is events, dear boy, events.